Published:
Oct 11, 2025
Author:
Sarah Parsons Wolter
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In the absence of the usual August pronouncements from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the world has been forced to consult less distinguished relatives. With the government shutdown silencing official employment releases, alternative data has gone from boutique curiosity to accidental authority.
Take the Carlyle “shadow labour” report, for instance. It estimates 17,000 jobs added in September, far below consensus expectations of 54,000. That’s not just caution; it’s a hiring freeze wrapped in econometrics. Then there’s ADP, reporting a 32,000 contraction in private-sector jobs. The divergence isn’t noise - it’s the point.
So what’s powering these back-channel readings? Payroll flows, credit-card swipes, job postings, satellite foot traffic, even electricity usage. Bank of America now parses millions of customer accounts to see who’s receiving wages or unemployment benefits - effectively turning deposits into a real-time labor gauge. Some signals are quirky, others credible, all suddenly relevant - like relying on your uncle’s home-brew after the pub’s closed.
Yet a caution: most alternative models are calibrated against the official benchmarks that have gone dark. Remove the reference point and you risk modeling on air. Alternative data may offer speed and independence - real-time signals, granular insight, and the rare virtue of not requiring congressional approval to exist - but without its benchmark, even the fastest data can drift off course.
The shutdown has handed private data firms an unexpected audition. If their forecasts prove faster or more accurate, they may not give the stage back once the BLS returns. For fintech, the question is who starts trusting the bots over the bureaucrats - or when even the data can’t tell which one’s real.
Portfolio News
New York State's Secure Choice Savings Program goes live with Vestwell, expanding retirement access across the state - Vestwell strengthens leadership in the savings industry, powering 85% of all state-facilitated retirement savings programs nationwide. The New York State Secure Choice Savings Program is now live, with Vestwell as the program administrator. The program is available to all private-sector businesses in New York with ten or more employees that do not currently offer a retirement plan. It helps bridge the savings gap by providing access to a flexible and straightforward retirement savings option. Read more
Uncle Sam Is Offline, But the Servers Are Still On
The unofficial jobs numbers are in and it’s rough out there - A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: The U.S. labor market is losing steam. These numbers are getting more attention while the federal government shutdown keeps the lights off at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, delaying new data in an unsettled time for the jobs market. Read more
In lieu of government data, investment firm Carlyle reports subdued US hiring - The global investment firm estimated that U.S. employers added just 17,000 jobs last month, far below the 54,000 expected in the nonfarm payrolls report, which had been scheduled for release last week. The firm's internal indicators showed GDP growth running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September, a 3.8% drop in energy prices, and a 3.3% increase in prices for services, excluding shelter. Read more
Lack of jobs data due to government shutdown muddies view of hiring and the US economy - The interruption in the data has occurred at a particularly uncertain time, when policymakers at the Federal Reserve and Wall Street investors would need more data on the economy, rather than less. Hiring has ground nearly to a halt, threatening to drag down the broader economy. Read more
Federal government recalls workers to produce key inflation report - The Bureau of Labor Statistics will recall some staff during the government shutdown to ensure release of September’s consumer-price index, a critical data point for Social Security adjustments and Fed rate decisions. Read more
Industry News
Fifth Third to acquire Comerica in $10.9b deal - Fifth Third Bancorp said it would acquire Comerica for $10.9b, marking the latest effort by regional lenders to bulk up and compete with behemoths such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. The all-stock deal would create one of the top 20 largest banks in the U.S., with $288b in total assets, according to Federal Reserve data. Read more
Kentucky bourbon bust derails spirit maker’s plan to pay bank with barrels - On Friday, a bankruptcy judge rejected a chapter 11 restructuring plan for the U.S. arm of spirits maker Stoli Group because its proposal largely relies on its Kentucky bourbon inventory to pay down its bank debt. Kentucky’s bourbon market is oversaturated with inventory at a time when some consumers are moving away from spirits. Read more
Insurers balk at multibillion-dollar claims faced by OpenAI and Anthropic - The two US-based AI start-ups have traditional business insurance coverage in place, but insurance professionals said AI model providers will struggle to secure protection for the full scale of damages they may need to pay out in future. Read more
Lehman’s London arm to close, 17 years and £28b later - A London judge ruled that the administration of Lehman Brothers International Europe could be concluded, with the company having satisfied all of its creditors. Administrators have nothing left to do, with most creditors of LBIE paid in full with statutory interest, and a few of LBIE's subsidiaries will likely continue in administration for a brief period of time, before also being liquidated. Read more
Coinbase applies to become national trust company - In a recent blog post, the cryptocurrency exchange said it had applied for the charter with the OCC to build on its custody business. “Coinbase has no intention of becoming a bank. It is our firm belief that clear rules and the trust of our regulators and customers enable Coinbase to confidently innovate while ensuring proper oversight and security,” the blog post said. Read more
Rising fees force premium credit-card holders to choose sides - The refreshed premium cards rolled out over the past few months by the likes of Chase and Amex are prompting a reshuffling among affluent consumers. Many with multiple high-fee cards are choosing one, and shifting their spending accordingly. They don’t want to pay more than $1,000 in annual fees only to receive two sets of complex perks that require meticulous tracking. Read more
At $1.2t, more high-grade debt now tied to AI than banks - AI companies now make up 14% of the high-grade market, surpassing US banks, and the analysts identified 75 companies across tech, utilities and capital goods sectors that are closely tied to AI. Debt investors are scrambling to get a piece of the pie, with companies linked to AI seeing their equity valuations skyrocket and debt investors competing to underwrite debt deals supporting the development of large data centers. Read more
NYSE owner to invest $2b in betting firm Polymarket - The transaction values Polymarket at roughly $8b, and ICE will become a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data. ICE and Polymarket have agreed to partner on future tokenization initiatives, with ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher saying there are opportunities across markets that ICE and Polymarket can uniquely serve. Read more
Private equity taps lending power of three to finance mega deals - Borrowers have started to use a hybrid financing model that combines three sources of cash: institutional, bank and private credit. It’s an arrangement that works out well for private equity firms and their companies, allowing them to stretch leverage, push more aggressive terms and drive pricing down. Read more
Monzo weighs new attempt at landing US banking license - Monzo executives believe the new application would be more likely to win acceptance from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), in the wake of the deregulatory push overseen by President Donald Trump. Read more
Morgan Stanley drops restrictions on which wealth clients can own crypto funds - Starting Oct. 15, advisors will be able to pitch crypto funds to any client. Previously, the option was limited to those with an aggressive risk tolerance and at least $1.5m in assets who wanted crypto in a taxable brokerage account. Read more
Klarna and Google Cloud partner on AI shopping personalization - The first phase of the partnership will focus on two areas. The first is creative production, where Klarna plans to use Google’s image- and video-generation tools to build digital lookbooks and campaign visuals. The second is personalization, which will apply AI models to enhance Klarna’s library of more than 200m product images, so visuals appear clearer and better aligned with individual preferences. Read more
Select Financings
AiPrise - San Francisco based compliance platform for KYC and KYB automation raised $12.5m in Series A funding led by Headline. Read more
Agio Ratings - London based digital asset risk intelligence startup raised $6m in new funding led by AlbionVC. Read more
Akua - Bogotá based agentic payments platform raised $8.5m in Seed funding led by Flourish Ventures and Cathay Latam. Read more
Coinflow - Chicago based stablecoin payments platform raised $25m in Series A funding led by Pantera Capital. Read more
ConCntric - San Francisco based preconstruction platform raised $10m in Series A funding led by 53 Stations. Read more
DualEntry - New York based AI-native ERP platform raised $90m in Series A funding led by Lightspeed Venture Partners and Khosla Ventures. Read more
DUOS - Minneapolis based AI-powered care navigation platform raised $130m in growth funding led by FTV Capital. Read more
Feedzai - Lisbon based financial crime prevention platform raised $75m in growth funding led by Lince Capital. Read more
FurtherAI - San Francisco based AI workspace for insurance raised $25m in Series A funding led by Andreessen Horowitz. Read more
Meanwhile - Bermuda based Bitcoin-denominated life insurer raised $82m in growth funding co-led by Bain Capital Crypto and Haun Ventures. Read more
Parallel - Salt Lake City based forecasting platform for startups raised $2.4m in Seed funding led by Night Capital and K5 Tokyo Black. Read more
QuoteWell - Austin based AI-powered wholesale insurance brokerage raised $12m in new funding led by New Enterprise Associates. Read more
Routefusion - Austin based financial infrastructure platform for cross border payments raised $26.5m in Series A funding led by PeakSpan Capital. Read more
TransCrypts - San Francisco based blockchain-powered digital identity verification platform raised $15m in Seed funding led by Pantera Capital. Read more
Yendo - Dallas based vehicle-secured credit platform raised $50m in Series B funding led by Spice Expeditions. Read more
Zingage - New York based AI platform for home healthcare operations raised $12.5m in Seed funding led by Bessemer Venture Partners. Read more
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