Published:
Aug 23, 2025
Author:
Sarah Parsons Wolter
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AI has become a spectator sport with a betting line. In August alone, nearly $20m in wagers flowed through Kalshi and Polymarket, where traders are backing models the way others back teams. Odds swing with each leaderboard update, GitHub commit, or stray social post: one bettor flipped $4,500 into $10,000 by betting against GPT-5 hype in favor of Google’s Gemini, while Elon Musk’s late-night boasts briefly sent his xAI Grok contracts up 500% before collapsing. The pace is frenetic, and every scrap of information can be priced, if you catch it first.
The same dynamics are fueling a war for talent. Despite a recently reported hiring freeze in its AI division, Meta has led the charge, offering researchers $300m or more and crafting exploding offers that expire within days. Google pulled leaders from Windsurf just as the startup was in talks with OpenAI, upending a $3b deal. Researchers now command professional athlete-level compensation, and the race to lock in talent is reshaping the AI ecosystem itself.
Speed drives both markets. Just as odds on models can flip in hours, so can the fortunes of companies built around their creators. Speculators continue to bet on which lab will lead even as the scientists themselves are traded like franchise players. In this race, the jockeys change horses mid-gallop.
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Select Financings
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