Published:
Oct 26, 2024
Author:
Sarah Parsons Wolter
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The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a historic one — not just for the candidates, but for how we predict the outcome. For the first time, prediction markets like Polymarket are competing head-to-head with traditional polls, offering real-time odds and massive financial stakes. One of the four accounts on Polymarket fueling speculation with large bets on a Trump victory recently took even bigger wagers, increasing the collective potential payout from $30m on Friday to nearly $43m by Monday morning, according to Polymarket’s activity tracker.
This election will be the first where both polls and prediction markets vie for supremacy in forecasting the outcome. Polls, long the go-to for political analysis, may soon face competition from these markets, which many argue can be more accurate since they aggregate the real-time "wisdom of the crowds." With such large sums on the line, bettors tend to weigh their decisions more carefully. Polymarket, for example, called J.D. Vance as Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick before any major news outlets, and it has been pricing Joe Biden's potential withdrawal from the race with greater certainty than traditional media.
But it will be interesting to see whether prediction markets can truly outpace polls when the stakes are this high. Will bettors with large financial resources manipulate public perceptions by shifting odds? Or will polls, bolstered by decades of methodology, still reign supreme?
In the meantime, we’re learning that some of the biggest wagers are coming from overseas accounts, like “Freddi9999,” a French ex-trader who’s placed $45m on a Trump victory. He’ll likely be watching the results unfold from across the Atlantic, picking up his baguette from the local store before settling in to see if his bet pays off.
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